Ecuadorians are heading to the polls this Sunday in a closely contested presidential runoff between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and leftist challenger Luisa Gonzalez. Noboa, who narrowly defeated Gonzalez in 2023 to complete his predecessor’s term, seeks a full mandate to continue his crackdown on drug gangs and revitalize the struggling economy.
Violent crime, fueled by gangs linked to Mexican cartels and the Albanian mafia, has surged in recent years. Noboa, 37, touts his "Phoenix" security plan, which includes military street patrols and increased drug and weapons seizures, claiming a 15% drop in violent deaths last year. He projects 4% economic growth in 2025 and has recently distributed aid to flood and oil spill victims, a move seen as aimed at swaying voters.
Gonzalez, a protégé of former socialist President Rafael Correa, argues Noboa has failed to deliver meaningful change. She promises to restore Correa-era social programs and deploy 20,000 new police officers. Gonzalez questions Noboa's leadership, citing a rise in homicides early this year and accusing him of improvisation.
With both candidates warning of possible fraud and deploying over 45,000 election observers, tensions are high. Bond markets remain cautious due to election uncertainty, though analysts expect a rally if Noboa wins.
If elected, Gonzalez would become Ecuador’s first female president. While she insists she’ll govern independently, speculation continues about Correa’s influence, especially if he returns from Belgium, where he lives in exile following a corruption conviction.
Voting results are expected from 6 p.m. local time (2300 GMT). The outcome will shape Ecuador’s future amid rising insecurity, economic instability, and calls for political change.